The latest semi-annual USDA report (9 April 2026) confirms China’s emergence as a major poultry meat exporter, positions Brazil as the undisputed leader in global trade, and forecasts world production of 110.7 million tonnes in 2026

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the semi-annual edition of its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report, dated 9 April 2026. From its statistical tables, official forecasts for broiler meat production, consumption, imports and exports for the world’s leading countries can be derived, with data updated to 2025 and projections for 2026.

In this article, we provide an in-depth analysis — for the more than 5,000 monthly readers of NeXusAvicultura — of the poultry meat section, the most dynamic segment of the report, along with a brief summary of the beef and pork sections.

World production: 110.7 million tonnes in 2026

Global broiler meat production is forecast to reach 110.7 million tonnes (RTC) in 2026, 3% more than in 2025, according to USDA projections. This marks the third consecutive year of sustained growth, driven primarily by China and Brazil.

China leads the increase with projected output of 17.3 million tonnes (+5%), supported by high grandparent breeder inventories, expansion of large integrators, increased slaughter and processing capacity, and falling feed costs. Brazil will grow to 15.8 million tonnes (+2%), driven by export demand, a weak real, and competitive production costs. The EU will advance 1% to 12.3 million tonnes, contingent on a reduction in HPAI outbreaks. The USA will produce 22.2 million tonnes (+2%), the undisputed world leader, with higher live weights and positive margins.

Broiler meat production – Major countries (1,000 MT RTC)
	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026 Dec	2026 Apr
Production
China	14,300	14,800	15,350	16,500	16,700	17,300
Brazil	14,465	14,900	15,000	15,450	15,700	15,800
European Union	10,880	11,040	11,735	12,090	11,970	12,250
Russia	4,800	4,825	4,920	4,995	5,140	5,070
Mexico	3,763	3,888	3,990	4,153	4,150	4,285
Thailand	3,300	3,450	3,490	3,535	3,650	3,575
Turkey	2,418	2,329	2,512	2,797	2,900	2,910
Argentina	2,319	2,436	2,485	2,525	2,590	2,590
Colombia	1,893	1,890	1,895	2,074	2,090	2,150
United Kingdom	1,847	1,858	1,867	1,899	1,890	1,910
Others	21,310	21,321	19,812	20,194	20,805	20,698
Subtotal	81,295	82,737	83,056	86,212	87,585	88,538
United States	20,994	21,082	21,343	21,773	22,029	22,190
World total	102,289	103,819	104,399	107,985	109,614	110,728
Total domestic consumption
China	14,401	15,002	15,057	15,712	15,900	16,150
European Union	9,867	10,110	10,686	11,089	11,085	11,260
Brazil	10,023	10,135	10,110	10,485	10,455	10,655
Mexico	4,664	4,887	5,004	5,175	5,285	5,326
Russia	4,750	4,837	4,941	5,045	5,180	5,145
Japan	2,877	2,846	2,937	2,965	3,000	2,963
United Kingdom	2,484	2,569	2,605	2,706	2,730	2,750
Philippines	1,880	1,892	2,060	2,313	2,400	2,536
Argentina	2,138	2,298	2,317	2,397	2,490	2,485
Turkey	1,772	1,870	2,157	2,324	2,450	2,400
Others	27,340	27,169	25,743	26,152	26,927	26,629
Subtotal	82,196	83,615	83,617	86,363	87,902	88,299
United States	17,677	17,877	18,408	18,781	19,020	19,237
World total	99,873	101,492	102,025	105,144	106,922	107,536
Note: Chicken feet excluded. Source: USDA-FAS, April 2026

“China will produce 17.3 million tonnes of chicken in 2026, significantly surpassing Brazil for the first time. The axis of production growth has shifted to the Asian giant.”

World trade: 14.8 million tonnes and a map in transformation

Global broiler meat exports will grow 3% to 14.8 million tonnes in 2026. However, the aggregate figure conceals a profound redistribution of export power.

Broiler meat exports by major country (million MT RTC). Source: USDA-FAS, April 2026.

Brazil retains the lead with 5.15 million tonnes (35% of global trade), backed by its HPAI-free status, price competitiveness, product diversity, and the ability to redirect trade flows in response to instability in the Middle East. The USA ranks second with 3.015 million tonnes (20%), followed in third place by the EU with 1.75 million tonnes (12%), and, now as the fourth-largest global exporter, China with 1.4 million MT, followed by Thailand with 1.275 million tonnes.

Global broiler meat trade share (%)
Country	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026 (F)
Brazil	33%	35%	36%	35%	35%
USA	24%	24%	22%	21%	20%
EU	13%	12%	13%	12%	12%
China	4%	4%	6%	8%	9%
Thailand	8%	8%	9%	9%	9%
Others	19%	16%	15%	15%	15%
Source: USDA-FAS, April 2026

The USA stagnates at 3.0 million tonnes (20% of trade), weighed down by uncompetitive export prices, the loss of the Chinese market, HPAI-related restrictions in South Africa, and Brazilian competition in Mexico. Its share falls from 24% in 2022 to a projected 20% in 2026.

“Brazil and China are capturing virtually all of the growth in global chicken trade. For the remaining exporters — the EU, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine — gains are marginal.”

Broiler meat trade – Major countries (1,000 MT RTC)
	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026 Dec	2026 Apr
Imports
Japan	1,101	1,063	1,143	1,122	1,170	1,130
United Kingdom	903	935	977	1,049	1,075	1,075
Mexico	915	1,006	1,021	1,031	1,140	1,050
European Union	701	722	723	743	840	760
Philippines	496	434	496	612	585	710
Saudi Arabia	594	564	607	586	655	525
Iraq	531	529	552	492	500	520
Ghana	253	277	331	394	410	425
UAE	356	375	385	400	415	375
Russia	200	232	285	325	275	350
Others	5,083	5,024	4,718	4,635	4,874	4,615
Subtotal	11,133	11,161	11,238	11,389	11,939	11,535
United States	83	61	70	70	64	60
World total	11,216	11,222	11,308	11,459	12,003	11,595
Exports
Brazil	4,447	4,767	4,895	4,970	5,250	5,150
European Union	1,714	1,652	1,772	1,744	1,725	1,750
China	532	554	770	1,085	1,200	1,400
Thailand	1,021	1,098	1,170	1,249	1,275	1,275
Turkey	646	459	355	473	450	510
Ukraine	419	428	463	451	475	460
Russia	245	220	264	275	235	275
United Kingdom	266	224	239	242	235	235
Argentina	194	144	175	153	135	125
Canada	112	114	121	107	120	115
Others	644	589	473	495	527	479
Subtotal	10,240	10,249	10,697	11,244	11,627	11,774
United States	3,314	3,291	3,040	3,047	3,066	3,015
World total	13,554	13,540	13,737	14,291	14,693	14,789
Note: Chicken feet excluded. Source: USDA-FAS, April 2026

China: from net importer to export powerhouse in just two years

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The central chapter of the USDA report is dedicated to China’s transformation as a poultry meat exporter. The figures are compelling: Chinese exports reached 1,085,000 tonnes in 2025, up +41% compared to 2024, and the USDA forecasts they will rise to 1.4 million tonnes in 2026 (+29%). In 2020, China exported barely 388,000 tonnes. In six years, it has multiplied its exported volume by 3.6.

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«China has multiplied its chicken export volume by 3.6 in six years. No other country has altered the balance of global poultry trade at this speed.»

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In value terms, Chinese chicken exports reached 2.59 billion dollars in 2025, almost double the 2020 figure. The competitive weapon is price: China offers low-cost chicken, penetrating the markets of developing countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. China became a net exporter in 2024 and exports will already represent 8% of its production in 2026, compared to 3% in 2020.

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China – Poultry Meat: Supply and Demand (1,000 MT)
	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026 (F)
Production	14,600	14,700	14,300	14,800	15,350	16,500	17,300
Imports	999	788	633	756	477	297	250
Exports	388	457	532	554	770	1,085	1,400
Domestic consumption	15,211	15,031	14,401	15,002	15,057	15,712	16,150
Production chg. (%)	6%	1%	-3%	3%	4%	7%	5%
Import chg. (%)	72%	-21%	-20%	19%	-37%	-38%	-16%
Export chg. (%)	-9%	18%	16%	4%	39%	41%	29%
Imports / consumption (%)	7%	5%	4%	5%	3%	2%	2%
Exports / production (%)	3%	3%	4%	4%	5%	7%	8%
Source: USDA-FAS / Trade Data Monitor

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Radical diversification of destinations

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In 2020, Japan and Hong Kong accounted for 79% of Chinese chicken exports. In 2025, their combined share has fallen to 37%. Growth has been redirected towards Russia (11%), the EU (10%), Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Iraq, UAE and African markets.

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Destinations of Chinese chicken exports: 2020 vs. 2025 comparison. Source: Trade Data Monitor.

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Chinese chicken exports to Africa rose from barely 1,383 tonnes in 2020 to 65,289 tonnes in 2025 (+274% year-on-year). Iraq, practically non-existent as a destination in 2022, received 25,859 tonnes in 2025. Qatar went from zero to more than 10,000 tonnes.
Chinese chicken exports to Africa grew by 274% in a single year: from 17,465 to 65,289 tonnes. Low-price Chinese chicken is redefining the protein map across the continent.

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China’s exports have focused primarily on developing countries.

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Chinese poultry meat exports – Key markets (MT)
Country	Rk	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	%Δ 24/25
WORLD		388,018	456,718	532,266	554,118	769,980	1,084,727	41
Africa (total)		1,383	1,363	3,309	4,225	17,465	65,289	274
Japan	1	161,196	180,098	193,109	172,371	185,400	201,465	9
Hong Kong	2	142,879	162,953	168,879	166,925	182,334	192,008	5
Russia	3	0	341	4,154	17,701	73,832	114,664	55
EU 27	4	21,109	28,952	45,800	57,536	85,091	108,291	27
United Kingdom	5	6,144	8,352	18,442	25,432	37,548	49,995	33
Cambodia	6	2,379	3,256	5,292	7,067	10,595	42,249	299
Kyrgyzstan	7	0	193	3,555	10,922	24,595	40,300	64
Malaysia	8	13,172	16,904	22,535	11,430	23,572	35,017	49
Mongolia	9	13,120	14,179	19,252	25,917	32,939	34,494	5
UAE	10	705	874	1,906	2,496	10,314	33,569	225
Georgia	11	1,891	2,494	5,819	9,761	18,811	27,591	47
Bahrain	12	3,600	5,241	7,516	11,446	19,820	26,940	36
Iraq	13	0	0	271	251	2,903	25,859	791
Philippines	14	4,087	10,233	11,909	12,325	14,422	20,904	45
Afghanistan	15	2,508	3,998	6,870	4,532	13,642	19,394	42
Macao	16	11,712	12,981	13,506	15,035	16,434	16,619	1
Libya	17	0	0	28	0	2,569	16,014	523
Angola	18	9	0	274	220	3,653	14,461	296
Qatar	19	0	0	40	0	286	10,374	3,527
Ghana	20	13	106	1,218	1,506	3,733	8,330	123
Source: China Customs Statistics / Trade Data Monitor

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Change in product composition

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China’s export profile has shifted. In 2020, 58% of shipments were prepared/preserved products and 22% were frozen cuts. In 2025, frozen cuts account for 55% and prepared/preserved products for 38%. China has moved from exporting predominantly value-added processed products to Japan and Hong Kong, to selling basic frozen cuts at low prices to emerging markets.

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Composition of Chinese poultry meat exports: 2020 vs. 2025. Source: Trade Data Monitor.

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«China needs to place its growing production surpluses. With a declining population and per capita chicken consumption of only 11 kg/year — compared to 55 kg in the U.S. — production growth far outpaces domestic demand.»

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Access restrictions that shape the strategy

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The report notes that, of the five largest import markets in the world, China has limited access to Japan, the United Kingdom, the EU and Saudi Arabia, and no access to Mexico. Its expansion will therefore focus on medium-sized and developing markets. If China’s export expansion exceeds the growth in global demand, it will have to displace direct competitors — adding further tension to the trade landscape.

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Major importers: Japan, United Kingdom, Mexico and the Philippines

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Japan remains the leading importer with 1.13 million tonnes, slightly below 2024, with solid demand driven by convenience food consumption. The United Kingdom consolidates second place with 1.075 million tonnes. Mexico will import 1.05 million tonnes, somewhat less than forecast in December, affected by the new tariff-rate quota and domestic competition. The Philippines is the fastest-growing import market: from 496,000 tonnes in 2022 to a projected 710,000 tonnes in 2026, driven by the impact of ASF on local pig production.

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The HPAI factor: sanitary risk with trade implications

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The USDA report conditions several of its forecasts on the behaviour of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). EU production growth (+1%) assumes a reduction in outbreaks. U.S. exports remain penalised by restrictions in China and South Africa stemming from HPAI. And Brazil maintains its competitive advantage precisely because of its status as an HPAI-free country, an asset that protects its access to premium markets such as Japan, South Korea and Mexico.

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«Brazil captures market share in markets where China cannot enter — Japan, Korea, Mexico — thanks to its product diversity, quality and, above all, its HPAI-free status.»

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Beef and pork: summary of macro trends

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Beef: Global production declining (-1%, 61.6 M t). Brazil remains the world’s leading producer despite a 2% fall. China is implementing tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) that will cut its imports by 13%. The U.S. is reducing production (-1%) and exports (-8%) due to a shortage of cattle and loss of access to China. Mexico is increasing production by 11% following the closure of the U.S. border to live cattle. Trade flows are being redistributed on a global scale.

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Pork: Global production +1% (120.2 M t). China dominates with 59.5 M t. Diseases (ASF) continue to shape trade: the EU is cutting exports by 8% due to the outbreak in Spain and lower margins. Brazil and the U.S. are gaining market share, redirecting flows towards Mexico, Central America and Asian markets affected by ASF (Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan). Chinese pork imports are falling by 16%: dependence on the Chinese market is now a thing of the past for Western exporters.

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Key figures

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Key figures for the POULTRY MEAT sector at WORLD level – April 2026
World production 2026 (F)	110.7 million tonnes RTC (+3%)
World exports 2026 (F)	14.8 million tonnes (+3%)
Production leader	U.S. (22.2 M t) > China (17.3 M t) > Brazil (15.8 M t) > EU (12.3 M t)
Export leader	Brazil (5.15 M t, 35%) > EU (1.75 M t) > China (1.4 M t) > Thailand (1.275 M t)
Import leader	Japan (1.13 M t) > U.K. (1.075 M t) > Mexico (1.05 M t) > EU (0.76 M t)
Highest export growth	China: +41% in 2025, +29% forecast in 2026
World consumption 2026 (F)	107.5 million tonnes
Key sanitary factor	HPAI conditions market access and EU/U.S. forecasts
Source	USDA-FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, 9 April 2026

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Source:
-. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, April 9, 2026. Data: Trade Data Monitor, China Customs Statistics.

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Tracking on NeXusAvicultura

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This report is part of the series of analyses that NeXusAvicultura publishes on the poultry meat sector. You can find all our previous articles on the global poultry meat sector at https://nexusavicultura.com/tag/sector-carne/

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To learn more:
-. Poultry farming in Europe
-. Global poultry meat consumption

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nhttps://nexusavicultura.com/exportaciones-de-pollo-de-china-a-europa-aumentan-un-33-y-la-ce-alerta-graves-carencias-del-pollo-importado/n

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• Global chicken market: strong demand, export records and a war that complicates everything (Rabobank Q2 2026)
• 2026 overview of the European chicken market
• 2025 map of broiler production: key trends (Rabobank World Poultry Map)
• Countries will prioritise food sovereignty in 2026 over producing chicken for export
• Spain seals historic agreement with China to open its market to Spanish poultry meat
• Poultry meat sector – All NeXusAvicultura articles

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